Spatial Assessment of Water Use Efficiency (SDG Indicator 6.4.1) for Regional Policy Support

Countries are facing the challenge of identifying the most effective implementation strategies and measures for achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) and their specific targets. The standard procedure proposed by international organizations consists of a set of indicators (one or more per target) assessed at country level. However, such country scale assessments have only limited potential for regional or national policymaking, because of aggregation and averaging effects, which limit the identification of phenomena, their causal relationships, and their spatial-temporal dynamics. The need thus emerges for defining assessment procedures that go beyond national level aggregation and zoom into local phenomena, while maintaining a link with the approach adopted at the global level for monitoring and reporting the progress towards the meeting of the SDGs. SDG 6 focuses on water resources and aims at achieving safe water and sanitation for all, which are essential to human health, environmental sustainability and economic prosperity. SDG 6 is evidently interconnected with several other SDGs, and in particular with those focused on food production (SDG2) and other socio-economic activities using water as a production factor. This paper proposes an approach to assess SDG 6, based upon freely available global data sets. The methodology is suitable for both reporting at international level in accordance with approved guidelines proposed by custodian agencies and – more importantly – analyzing the spatial features of the phenomena related to the SDGs and their targets, producing information useful to support effective sustainability oriented policies. The proposed approach is demonstrated for the assessment of the indicator 6.4.1 (Change in water use efficiency) in South and South-East Asia, with the ambition to provide operational solutions timely applicable at the global level by exploiting the ever-increasing availability of spatial information deriving from ongoing exercises in the field of global change. This will allow identifying current and emerging water management issues, such as the areas where strategies are required to increase the availability of water resources, or those necessitating transboundary strategies. Scenario analysis driven by the IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways is developed to explore policy and technological solutions across the nexus between water management and agriculture

Policy-relevant Assessment Method of Socio-Economic Impacts of Floods: an Italian Case Study

This paper estimates the direct and indirect socio-economic impacts of the 2000 flood that took place in the Po river basin (Italy) using a combination of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Spatial and Multi-Criteria Analysis. A risk map for the whole basin is generated as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The indirect economic losses are assessed using the CGE model, whereas the direct social and economic impacts are estimated with spatial analysis tools combined with Multi-Criteria Analysis. The social impact is expressed as a function of physical characteristics of the extreme event, social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The results indicate that the highest risk areas are located in the mountainous and in the most populated portions of the basin, which are consistent with the high values of hazard and vulnerability. Considerably economic damages occurred to the critical infrastructure of all the sectors with the industry/commercial sector having the biggest impact. A negative variation in the country and industry Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was also reported. Our study is of great interest to those who are interested in estimating the economic impact of flood events. It can also assist decision makers in pinpointing factors that threaten the sustainability and stability of a risk-prone area and more specifically, to help them understand how to reduce social vulnerability to flood events

ACEWATER2 Regional database: hydro-climatology data-analysis

The report presents the architecture of a regional hydro-climatology information system, developed in the framework of the ACEWATER2 project, in order to support effective organization of information. Information includes both freely available large and regional scale data sources, as well as databases compiled by the CoEs (Centers of Excellence) and submitted as part of their scientific undertakings. The information system builds upon and specializes the JRC knowledge sharing platform Aquaknow (https://aquaknow.jrc.ec.europa.eu/), including: • at the system core, a relational database; its schema has been designed to store both detailed metadata and, where relevant (avoiding duplication of information otherwise accessible), data themselves. Metadata include, among others, datasets extended description, spatial extent, temporal frequency, reference Institutions/authors, credits and limitations, web links to access original data and/or any further documentation. Data can be stored as public or private, depending upon confidentialy and sharing policies; • user friendly facilities, supporting the end user in efficiently browsing, querying, uploading and downloading information (metadata and data). System access is limited to accredited audience, via password authentication. Dedicated groups for the three ACEWATER CoE networks (Western, Southern and Central-Eastern Africa) have been setup and scientists invited to register. Currently the system is operational and we submitted databases documented and, depending upon confidentiality and authorization issues, also stored. A general review and classification of freely available information at continenal, regional and local scale of interest to ACEWATER2 project, and particularly to selected study areas (Senegal, Gambia and Niger; Zambezi; Blue Nile and Lake Victoria), have been completed. Metadata and, where relevant, data themselves have been stored to the information system database. Information submitted by the CoE (a continuous ongoing process) is migrated to the database as well, depending upon sharing authorization and/or limitations. The report also documents the ongoing scientific research at JRC on climate variability analysis based on L-Moments statistics. In particular maps of estimated precipitation deficit for different return periods at the river basins of interest are presented and included in the database.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

International Migration Drivers

The International Migration Drivers report quantifies the relative weight of the drivers of migration at international level in a comprehensive way by income levels of countries of origin. Different channels of migration (voluntary migration flows between 1980 and 2017, asylum seekers, residence permits) are analysed separately. The drivers consider both structural characteristics of countries and individual characteristics of persons planning and preparing to migrate. The study of the drivers of past migrations is used to formulate better informed migration scenarios for the future with a medium to long term perspective. In addition, findings of the report are key to understanding the root causes of migration addressed by the European Agenda on Migration and the upcoming Global Compact for Migration.JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governanc

Policy-relevant Assessment Method of Socio-economic Impacts of Floods: An Italian Case Study

This paper estimates the direct and indirect socio-economic impacts of the 2000 flood that took place in the Po river basin (Italy) using a combination of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Spatial and Multi-Criteria Analysis. A risk map for the whole basin is generated as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The indirect economic losses are assessed using the CGE model, whereas the direct social and economic impacts are estimated with spatial analysis tools combined with Multi-Criteria Analysis. The social impact is expressed as a function of physical characteristics of the extreme event, social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The results indicate that the highest risk areas are located in the mountainous and in the most populated portions of the basin, which are consistent with the high values of hazard and vulnerability. Considerably economic damages occurred to the critical infrastructure of all the sectors with the industry/commercial sector having the biggest impact. A negative variation in the country and industry Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was also reported. Our study is of great interest to those who are interested in estimating the economic impact of flood events. It can also assist decision makers in pinpointing factors that threaten the sustainability and stability of a risk-prone area and more specifically, to help them understand how to reduce social vulnerability to flood events

Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Land conversion and changing climate are expected to significantly alter tropical forest hydrology. We used a land surface model integrated with a river routing scheme to analyze the hydrological alterations expected in the Tapajós River basin, a large portion of the Brazilian Amazon, caused by two environmental drivers: climate and land use. The model was forced with two future climate scenarios (years 2026–2045) from the Earth System Model HadGem2-ES with moderate (+4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing value in the year 2100 with respect to preindustrial levels) and severe (+8.5 W/m2) representative atmospheric carbon dioxide pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways). We tested the sensitivity of our results to the uncertainty in future climate projections by running simulations with IPSL-CM5 (wettest scenarios) and GISS-E2 (driest scenarios). Human land use effects on vegetation were evaluated using a limited and an extreme deforestation scenario. Our analysis indicates that climate change is predicted to reduce river flows across seasons (up to 20%) and bring a considerable shift in flow seasonality toward a later onset (nearly 1.5 months) and increase in interannual variability. While land use change partially counteracts the climate-driven diminishing trend in river flows, it is expected to contribute to a further increase in interannual and intraannual variability. From a water management perspective, the overall reduction of river flows and their increased variability, combined with the shift and the shortening of the wet season, could potentially affect the productivity of the large hydropower systems planned for the region and the growing demand for agricultural and transport expansion

Assessing floods and droughts in the Mékrou River Basin (West Africa): A combined household survey and climatic trends analysis approach

The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin in West Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014–2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Water-resource management

Africa contains three extremely dry regions: northern Africa (with the Sahara Desert at its heart), southwestern Africa (around the Kalahari and Namib deserts), and the Horn of Africa. The continent also covers several regions with abundant water resources, which are often called water towers. Africa’s water towers include the Ethiopian Highlands, the Congo Basin, the East African mountain region, the Angolan water plateau, the Lesotho Highlands, the Jos Plateau in central Nigeria and the Fouta Djallon mountains in Guinea (UNEP, 2010).Fil: De Roo, Ad. No especifíca;Fil: Brink, Andreas. No especifíca;Fil: Pekel, Jean François. No especifíca;Fil: Alfieri, Lorenzo. No especifíca;Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Rembold, Felix. No especifíca;Fil: Negre, Thierry. No especifíca;Fil: Bouraqui, Faycal. No especifíca;Fil: Bisselink, Berny. No especifíca;Fil: Ronco, Paolo. No especifíca;Fil: Dondeynaz, Celiné. No especifíca;Fil: Farinosi, Fabio. No especifíca;Fil: Pastori, Marco. No especifíca;Fil: Ameztoy, Iban. No especifíca;Fil: Markantonis, Vasileios. No especifíca;Fil: Cordano, Emmanuele. No especifíca;Fil: Sánchez González, David. No especifíca;Fil: Carmona Moreno, César. No especifíca;Fil: Belward, Alan. No especifíca